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| 1.587362 |
multiplie each year (double every 18
months - moores law) |
1.4 |
multiple each year |
|
1.4 |
multiple each year |
|
|
|
Flash
(capacity in Gb at given price) |
|
HD
1-1.1" (capacity in Gb at given price) |
|
HD
1.8" (capacity in Gb at given price) |
|
| |
$9 |
$60 |
$200 |
|
$60 |
$100 |
$200 |
|
$60 |
$100 |
$200 |
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| |
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| 1998 |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.09 |
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| 1999 |
0.01 |
0.06 |
0.15 |
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| 2000 |
0.01 |
0.09 |
0.24 |
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| 2001 |
0.02 |
0.15 |
0.38 |
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|
5 |
|
| 2002 |
0.02 |
0.24 |
0.60 |
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|
5 |
10 |
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| 2003 |
0.04 |
0.38 |
0.94 |
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| 2004 |
0.06 |
0.60 |
1.50 |
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|
2 |
4 |
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|
20 |
40 |
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| 2005 |
0.10 |
0.95 |
2.38 |
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|
3 |
6 |
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|
40 |
60 |
|
| 2006 |
0.16 |
1.51 |
3.78 |
|
|
4 |
8 |
|
|
56 |
84 |
|
| 2007 |
0.25 |
2.40 |
6.00 |
|
|
5 |
11 |
|
?? |
78 |
118 |
|
| 2008 |
0.40 |
3.81 |
9.52 |
|
|
8 |
15 |
|
|
110 |
165 |
|
| 2009 |
0.63 |
6.05 |
15.12 |
|
|
11 |
22 |
|
|
154 |
230 |
|
| 2010 |
1.00 |
9.60 |
24.00 |
|
|
15 |
30 |
|
|
215 |
323 |
|
| 2011 |
1.59 |
15.24 |
38.09 |
|
|
21 |
42 |
|
|
301 |
452 |
|
| 2012 |
2.52 |
24.19 |
60.46 |
|
?? |
30 |
59 |
|
|
422 |
632 |
|
| 2013 |
4.00 |
38.39 |
95.98 |
|
|
41 |
83 |
|
|
590 |
|
|
| 2014 |
6.35 |
60.94 |
152.35 |
|
|
58 |
116 |
|
|
826 |
|
|
| 2015 |
10.08 |
96.74 |
241.84 |
|
|
81 |
162 |
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|
|
| Bold =
actual data point (from memory) |
|
| Items in
colour = point at which the tech (fundamentals) suggests a disruption -- but
other factors are relevant |
|
|
| 1
CD - attractive if very cheap, insertable into player and complimentary
software makes it easy to load up with an album |
|
| 5
CDs - most people's happy carry around set, attractive if it's as easy to
select and change the 5CDs as looking at your CD shelf and taking 5 CDs with
you |
|
| 30
CDs - most people's working set - attractive if it's easy to select what to
play from the large number of tracks |
|
| 30Gb
- most peoples wildest audio collect OR reasonable store for working set of
videos |
|
| We suspect
there is also a sizeable niche around 100-200Gb for owners of large
collections |
|
| If somehow
portable video players take off -- are you kidding? -- then there will be a
key size around 100-400Gb too |
|
|
| The key
disruption point is in red -- the UI/software isn't available, and is
unlikely to become available, for the 1&5 CD points to be able to carry
the mass market |
|
| This
suggest a key opporuntity for say a phone company to get a window of high
sales by creating the right UI/software by 2007/2008 (when $9 of flash gives
enough capacity to carry a chunk of the mass mobile music market IF there is
software to integrate well with a larger PC and/or online collection). |
|
| Most of
this will be disrupted at some point by online storage (ubiqitous networking)
- though the $9 of storage will persist in the device. |
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